Commuters pack Shibuya Station in Tokyo on March 11, 2011, after the Great East Japan Earthquake struck. (Asahi Shimbun file photo)

EDITORIAL: More measures needed to reduce victims in major Tokyo quake

（社説）首都直下地震　犠牲減らす対策さらに

The government’s experts’ panel has released a new estimate of damage from a magnitude 7 or stronger quake striking directly under Tokyo.

In the worst-case scenario, about 18,000 people would die. While that is about 20 percent less than the estimate released 12 years ago, it did not reach the goal set back then to halve the number in a decade.

About 400,000 buildings would be destroyed or burned down, with two-thirds of the deaths linked to fires.

Fires in the wake of earthquakes have long been described as an Achilles’ heel in urban areas.

While reducing congested neighborhoods of wooden homes and expanding the width of narrow roads would be effective measures, that requires both money and time.

Efforts should be made about ways to increase disaster management for the entire area, such as creating communities where fires do not spread.

If people should overflow into the streets, that would interfere with firefighting activities. People could be crushed to death if crowds stopped moving.

During the Great East Japan Earthquake, about 5.15 million people in the greater Tokyo metropolitan area could not easily return home, causing major traffic jams on roads and disrupting mobile phone services.

Reducing the number of those unable to return home is an important issue to allow speedy rescue efforts.

After the 2011 earthquake, the government compiled guidelines that called for not trying to return home immediately after a temblor, and asked companies and local governments to encourage employees and visitors to remain in place for three days.

But the Cabinet Office is now revising those guidelines because new issues have emerged, such as the increase in foreign tourists and how to deal with major events that are being held when a natural disaster strikes.

One issue that has to be dealt with is securing facilities for temporary stays.

The Tokyo metropolitan government has designated public facilities, such as schools, as well as meeting rooms in private buildings to serve that function. The metropolitan government has signed agreements with companies to have them prepare food and water.

But so far, only enough space for about 500,000 people has been secured within Tokyo, which is only 76 percent of the total need estimated by the metropolitan government.

While further cooperation should be sought, many companies are hesitant about taking action due to the costs and space needed to stockpile supplies.

There will be a need to create an environment that makes it easier for companies to cooperate. These efforts could include revising laws to clearly establish that such company facilities would also be eligible for subsidies similar to evacuation centers and providing public support for the expedient restocking of supplies.

People may not be able to return home even if there is no direct damage to buildings.

After the July earthquake off Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula, railways suspended service due to tsunami warnings and the Kamakura city government in Kanagawa Prefecture allowed foreign tourists to stay in its assembly hall, but government workers faced difficulties dealing with a multitude of languages.

Many visitors were left stranded at the Osaka Kansai Expo in August when the subway stopped operations. While some pavilions were opened to such visitors, they did not receive the needed information.

Using such recent incidents as a reference point, new guidelines must include proposals for dealing with different scenarios.

There are many things companies have to do, such as selecting workers to serve as leaders for disaster management, deciding methods for making contact during emergencies, stockpiling three days’ worth of supplies and conducting training exercises.

A major quake could strike other cities besides Tokyo.

Companies and households will be called on to take as many measures as possible and pass on those preparations.

--The Asahi Shimbun, Dec. 22

政府の有識者会議は首都直下地震の新たな被害想定を公表した。マグニチュード７級の地震が起きると、最悪で死者は約１万８千人にのぼる。１２年前の想定と比べて約２割減ったが、１０年間で半減という目標には届かなかった。
　約４０万棟が全壊・焼失し、死者の３分の２は火災が原因。地震後の火災は、以前から指摘される都市の弱点だ。木造住宅密集地域を減らすとともに、狭い道の拡幅が効果的だが、費用も時間も要する。燃え広がらない街づくりのため、地域全体で防災力を高める取り組みを考えたい。
　街なかに人があふれれば消火活動を妨げる。人の滞留は群衆雪崩も誘発する。東日本大震災では首都圏で約５１５万人が帰宅困難となり、道路は大渋滞し、携帯電話もつながりにくくなった。迅速な救命活動のためにも、帰宅困難者の抑制は重要な課題だ。
　政府は東日本大震災の後、指針を作成。発災直後はむやみに帰宅せず、３日間は会社や外出先にとどまるよう企業や自治体に呼びかけた。ただ外国人旅行者の増加や、イベント開催時の対応など新たな課題も浮かび、内閣府は指針の改定作業を進める。
　問題は一時的な滞在施設の確保だ。東京都は学校などの公共施設のほか、民間ビルの会議室などを指定し、食料や水を準備してもらうよう、企業と協定を結んでいる。都内では約５０万人分しか確保できておらず、都が想定する必要数の７６％にとどまる。
　一層の協力を求めたいが、備蓄品の保管場所やコストの問題で二の足を踏む企業も多い。避難所と同様に補助対象と法律で明確に位置づけ、備蓄品の迅速な補填（ほてん）など公的な支援によって、協力しやすい環境を整えることも必要だ。
　帰宅困難は建物などに直接的な被害がなくても起こりうる。７月のロシア・カムチャツカ半島の地震では、津波警報で鉄道が運休し、神奈川県鎌倉市は外国人観光客らを議場などで受け入れた。職員は多言語での対応に苦慮した。８月には大阪・関西万博で、地下鉄のトラブルで多数の来場客が足止めされ、パビリオンが開放された一方で、情報の提供などに課題も残った。
　こうした最近の実例をふまえ、指針ではケースごとの取り組み案も示してほしい。企業側も防災リーダーを置いて緊急時の連絡方法を決めておき、３日分の備蓄や訓練など、やるべきことは多い。
　首都圏以外の都市も、いつ大きな揺れに襲われるかわからない。企業や家庭で、できる対策を積み重ね、備えを継続することが求められる。

(2025年12月22日)