People react as they gather at Enghelab Square in Tehran on March 1 after Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in Israeli and U.S. strikes on Feb. 28. (West Asia News Agency via Reuters)

EDITORIAL: Assassination in Iran highlights the peril of force over diplomacy

（社説）イラン最高指導者殺害　外交より武力頼みの危うさ

If such lawlessness as using military force to eliminate a head of state who does not bow to one’s will is allowed, the order of the international community, where sovereign nations coexist as equals, cannot be maintained.

The United States and Israel attacked Iran in a joint operation, killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the nation's supreme leader. A power vacuum could arise in the resource-rich nation of 90 million people, which has a landmass four times the size of Japan.

If the Middle East, often described as a powder keg, becomes destabilized, the future of global security and the economy will be unpredictable. The international community must make every possible effort to de-escalate the situation.

■AN UNJUSTIFIABLE WAR

U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that Iran's long-range missiles posed an imminent threat. However, U.S. intelligence agencies were reportedly cautious in their assessment that the missiles could strike the U.S. mainland.

A pre-emptive strike is a preventive war measure that exceeds the scope of self-defense. The U.N. Charter limits the resolution of disputes through military force to instances of self-defense in response to an attack or when authorized by the U.N. Security Council. This attack meets neither of those requirements.

Following Israel's attack on Iran last June, this marks another instance of military force being used in the midst of diplomatic negotiations. The foreign minister of Oman, who was mediating between the United States and Iran, had assessed that great progress had been made, and a meeting of experts was scheduled to begin on March 2.

Trump had stated that the negotiations were seeking to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, but after the attack, he urged the Iranian people to take back their government, calling for regime change.

This makes it difficult to see the talks as anything but a stalling tactic to buy time for the U.S. military to deploy its forces in the Middle East.

If agreements reached at the negotiating table can be overturned by force in the end, trust in dialogue with the United States will be undermined. The actions of a major power that disregards the rule of law could give other countries a pretext for using military force or developing nuclear weapons.

■THE GLOBAL FALLOUT

In Iran, from the end of last year to January of this year, demonstrations criticizing the regime, sparked by economic hardship, spread throughout the country. It is reported that several thousands of protesters were killed in the crackdown by security authorities.

The United States and Israel undoubtedly saw this as an opportunity to weaken the regime. Iran's suppression of human rights is by no means acceptable. However, even if the government were to be overthrown by foreign military intervention, it would only lead to continued chaos.

Iraq, after the United States and Britain toppled Saddam Hussein's regime, descended into a quagmire, where more than 100,000 civilians and nearly 5,000 U.S. soldiers were killed.

In Libya, where the Gaddafi regime collapsed after NATO airstrikes, the country was split between east and west, descending into a civil war that rages to this day. We must learn from the lessons of history.

Iran has retaliated by attacking Israel as well as U.S. military bases in the Gulf Arab states, and tensions in the Persian Gulf are rising. There are also concerns that pro-Iranian armed groups in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and other countries may join the conflict.

It is imperative to prevent the conflict from escalating into a war that engulfs the entire region and to bring it to a resolution as quickly as possible.

The Strait of Hormuz, at the entrance to the Persian Gulf, is a vital chokepoint that handles about a quarter of the world's maritime oil transports. Due to the exchange of attacks, the passage of ships has effectively stopped.

If this situation persists, it will deal a major blow to the global economy, including a surge in crude oil prices.

Japan, which depends on the Middle East for more than 90 percent of its crude oil, cannot escape the impact. Although Japan has about 240 days' worth of oil reserves, a rise in gasoline prices is also a concern. Calm, forward-looking measures are required.

A negative impact on the peace process in the Gaza Strip in the Palestinian territories, where a fragile cease-fire continues, is also expected.

The Group of Seven nations, other than the United States, are not participating in the Board of Peace, which is responsible for the interim governance of Gaza. This is due to suspicions that Trump, who chairs it, has ambitions to make it an institution that replaces the United Nations.

With Trump's latest actions that ignore the United Nations and international law, other countries will likely become even more hesitant. It is inevitable that the Middle Eastern and Islamic nations that form the core of the board will react against Israel's self-righteousness. The board is at risk of becoming dysfunctional.

■THE RULE OF LAW AT RISK

This year began with an outrageous act by the United States, which relies on force. The U.S. military conducted a military operation in the South American country of Venezuela, detaining the president and his wife and taking them to the United States.

Less than two months later, it has now killed a head of state in the Middle East.

We must not return to a world where the strong prey on the weak, where order based on law is destroyed by force. The international community must recognize the gravity of this crisis.

However, the responses from various countries are divided. Britain stated that it does not want an escalation of the conflict, while France called for a solution through negotiations. The EU appealed for compliance with international humanitarian law.

On the other hand, it is extremely disappointing that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has announced his support for the United States. Did he not just point out the decline of the rules-based international order and call for the solidarity of middle power countries to counter the arrogance of great powers?

Japan is an ally of the United States, yet it is in a unique position of also maintaining long-standing friendly relations with Iran.

During the first term of the Trump administration, then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met with Khamenei to ease tensions. Japan must focus on protecting its nationals, but it cannot abandon its diplomatic duty to help end the war.

--The Asahi Shimbun, March 2

自分の意に沿わない国家元首は武力で排除する。こんな無法がまかり通れば、対等な主権国家が共存する国際社会の秩序は成り立たない。
　米国とイスラエルが共同作戦でイランを攻撃し、ハメネイ最高指導者を殺害した。日本の４倍以上の面積と約９千万の人口を持つ資源大国で権力の空白が生まれかねない。
　火薬庫ともいわれる中東が流動化すれば、世界の安全や経済の行方も見通せない。国際社会は事態の沈静化に最大限努めなくてはならない。

■許されぬ予防戦争
　トランプ米大統領は、イランの長距離ミサイルが「差し迫った脅威」と主張した。しかし米情報当局は、米本土を攻撃可能だとの評価には慎重だったとされる。
　先制攻撃は自衛の範囲を超える予防戦争である。国連憲章は武力による紛争解決を、攻撃を受けた際の自衛か、安全保障理事会の承認を得た場合に限定している。今回の攻撃は、その要件をどちらも満たしていない。
　昨年６月のイスラエルによるイラン攻撃に続き、またも外交交渉の途中での武力行使となった。米国とイランを仲介したオマーンの外相が「大きな前進があった」と評価し、２日からは専門家による会合が予定されていた。
　トランプ氏はイランに核兵器を持たせないための交渉だとしていたが、攻撃後にはイラン国民に「政権を奪い取れ」と体制転換を促した。協議は、米軍が中東に戦力を展開する時間稼ぎだったと見られても仕方ない。
　交渉の席に着いても最後は力で覆されるのなら、米国との対話への信頼は損なわれる。法秩序を軽んじる大国の行動は、他国に武力行使や核開発の口実を与えかねない。

■世界への影響懸念
　イランでは昨年末から今年１月にかけ、生活苦をきっかけとした体制批判のデモが全土に広がった。治安当局の取り締まりで、デモ参加者数千人が死亡したとされる。
　米国とイスラエルは、これを体制弱体化の好機ととらえたに違いない。イランの人権弾圧はとうてい容認できない。とはいえ、外国の武力介入で政権が倒れたとしても、混乱が続くだけだ。
　米英などがフセイン体制を倒した後のイラクは泥沼化し、１０万人以上の民間人と５千人近い米兵が死亡した。北大西洋条約機構（ＮＡＴＯ）軍が空爆し、カダフィ政権が崩壊したリビアは東西に分裂し、いまも内戦が続く。歴史の教訓に学ぶべきだ。
　イランは、イスラエルに加え、湾岸アラブ諸国の米軍基地などを報復攻撃し、ペルシャ湾の緊張は高まっている。シリア、レバノン、イラク、イエメンなどの親イラン武装組織の加勢も懸念される。
　地域全体を巻き込む戦争に拡大させず、できるだけ早く収拾することが求められる。
　ペルシャ湾の出入り口ホルムズ海峡は、世界の海上石油輸送の約４分の１を支える要所だ。攻撃の応酬により、船舶の航行は事実上止まっている。この状態が長引けば、原油価格の高騰など世界経済に大きな打撃となろう。
　中東に原油の９割以上を依存する日本は、影響を免れない。約２４０日分の石油備蓄があるが、ガソリン価格の上昇も心配される。先を見通した冷静な対策が求められる。
　薄氷の停戦が続くパレスチナ自治区ガザの和平へも悪影響が予想される。
　ガザの暫定統治を担う平和評議会に、米国以外の主要７カ国（Ｇ７）が参加していない。議長を務めるトランプ氏が国連に取って代わる機関とする野望があるのでは、との疑念からだ。
　国連や国際法を無視した今回のトランプ氏の振る舞いで、各国はさらに二の足を踏むだろう。評議会の中核となっている中東、イスラム諸国がイスラエルの独善に反発することは必至だ。評議会は機能不全に陥りかねない。

■法の秩序を壊すな
　今年は、力に頼む米国の暴挙で幕を開けた。米軍が南米ベネズエラで軍事作戦を実施し、大統領夫妻を拘束して米国に連行した。２カ月もたたないうちに、今度は中東で国家元首を殺害した。
　法による秩序が力で壊される弱肉強食の世界に戻してはならない。国際社会は危機感を共有する必要がある。
　ただ、各国の対応は割れている。英国は「紛争拡大は望まない」と表明、フランスは交渉による解決を求めた。欧州連合（ＥＵ）は、国際人道法の順守を訴えた。
　一方で、カナダのカーニー首相が米国支持を打ち出したのは、きわめて残念だ。ルールに基づく国際秩序の衰えを指摘し、大国の横暴に対抗する中堅国の結束を訴えたのではなかったか。
　日本は米国の同盟国でありながら、イランとも長く友好関係を維持する独自の立場にある。トランプ政権１期目には、緊張緩和のため当時の安倍首相がハメネイ最高指導者と会談した。邦人保護に全力をあげるとともに、戦争を終わらせるための外交努力も怠ってはならない。

(2026年3月2日)