Kyiv residents evacuate to a hotel underground parking garage after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. (Takashi Kida)

EDITORIAL: Diplomacy along with shelters needed to fend off missile attacks

（社説）シェルター整備　住民の安全を守るには

The government has approved a basic policy for securing shelters for use in the event of a military attack by a foreign nation.

While it is important to prepare for such a possibility, the issue also involves thinking about what situation is being considered and how to use the shelters.

Of prime importance is the effectiveness of any measure to protect the safety of residents.

It should also not be forgotten that a precondition is diplomatic efforts to prevent wars from starting.

The number of structures sturdy enough to protect against bomb blasts and debris and designated as emergency temporary evacuation facilities by prefectural governments and major cities can now accommodate about 150 percent of the total population.

But if we consider only underground facilities that are considered safer, the figure is only about 5 percent.

There are more than a few municipalities where not all residents can be protected.

The protection rate is also low for the daytime population of urban areas that see a large flow of commuters and students.

The basic plan has set a goal of covering the entire population of all municipalities, even during the day, by 2030.

The government is seeking to meet that goal by having such facilities also used for evacuation during natural disasters, utilizing existing underground shopping malls and parking lots, and seeking the cooperation of private-sector companies.

The government has also placed the measure as eligible for crisis management investment touted by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

But with fiscal constraints on the part of both the central and local governments, the public will have to be convinced by how priorities are set as the plan is promoted.

The basic plan was approved while installation started in various locations of long-range missiles that can be utilized against enemy bases preparing an attack on Japan.

Residents living near the bases where those missiles will be installed have expressed concerns that they will become targets during a military conflict.

Government officials emphasize that the move is designed to heighten deterrence, but have said nothing about the risks when that deterrence effect collapses.

There is a need to respond to the worries of residents, including whether their safety will be secured by the shelters.

Work has already begun in the Sakishima Islands of Okinawa Prefecture, where there is a plan to evacuate about 120,000 residents of five municipalities, including Ishigaki, in the event of a military conflict involving Taiwan.

The special temporary evacuation facilities being constructed with financial support from the central government will be used to take in residents who were late in fleeing the islands.

But the basic concerns of residents have not been totally resolved as doubts have been raised about the practicality of the evacuation plans.

The more the government emphasizes the need for shelters, the greater becomes the realization of the importance of diplomatic efforts to prevent a war.

The basic plan contains wording saying the central government must make efforts to avoid a military attack by an enemy.

But has the government sufficiently fulfilled that responsibility?

Relations with China continue to worsen and there has been no communication with North Korea.

Under such circumstances, the basic plan touches upon the need for study and research into preparing for a possible nuclear attack.

What is being called for is a balanced approach that prepares for a possible emergency while also displaying a course for reducing tensions.

--The Asahi Shimbun, April 1

外国からの武力攻撃を想定した避難施設（シェルター）の確保に向け、政府が基本方針を閣議決定した。万一への備えは大切だが、どんな事態を想定し、どう使うのか。運用を含め、住民の安全を守る実効性が問われる。戦争を起こさない外交努力が前提であることも忘れてはならない。
　爆風や破片から身を守る頑丈な施設を、都道府県や政令指定市が指定する「緊急一時避難施設」は、既に全人口の１５０％超をカバーしていることになっている。
　ただ、地上より安全性が高いとされる地下施設に限れば、５％超にとどまり、市区町村単位では、カバーしきれていない自治体も少なくない。通勤や通学で人口が流入する都市部で、昼間のカバー率が低いという課題もある。
　基本方針は、市町村単位で昼間人口を含め、２０３０年までにカバー率を１００％とする目標を掲げた。自然災害時の避難施設との共用、既存の地下街や地下駐車場などの活用、民間事業者との協力などで達成をめざすという。
　高市首相が旗を振る「危機管理投資」の一環とも位置付けるが、国・地方を通じて財政の制約があるなか、どのような優先順位で進めるのか、国民の納得が欠かせない。
　時を同じくして、敵基地攻撃にも使える長射程ミサイルの配備が始まった。
　基地周辺の住民からは、有事の際に標的になるのではないかとの不安が聞かれる。政府は抑止力の強化につながると強調するが、抑止が破綻（はたん）した時のリスクは語らない。シェルターで本当に安全が確保されるのか。住民の懸念に応える取り組みが必要だ。
　「台湾有事」を念頭に、住民ら約１２万人の避難計画がある沖縄県の先島諸島（石垣市など５市町村）では、一足先に整備に動き出した。国が財政支援する「特定臨時避難施設」を設け、逃げ遅れた住民らを収容するという。ただ、避難計画の現実性に疑問の声もあり、住民の不安の根本を解消できるとは言い難い。
　政府がシェルターの必要性を強調するほど、浮かび上がるのは、戦争を起こさせない外交努力の大切さである。
　基本方針にも、国は「そもそも武力攻撃の発生が回避されるようにしなければならず」との一文はあるが、その責務は十分果たされているか。中国との関係悪化が続き、北朝鮮との意思疎通も欠くなか、基本方針は、核攻撃に備えた調査・研究にまで言及している。もしもの事態に備えつつ、緊張緩和への道筋も示す。バランスのとれた取り組みこそが求められる。

(2026年4月1日)